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Motilal Oswal 5 Year G-Sec Fund of Fund (G) - 10.1439Motilal Oswal Asset Allocation Passive Fund of Fund – Aggressive (G) - 11.7321Motilal Oswal Asset Allocation Passive Fund of Fund – Aggressive-Dir (G) - 11.8289Motilal Oswal Asset Allocation Passive Fund of Fund – Conservative (G) - 11.2261Motilal Oswal Asset Allocation Passive Fund of Fund – Conservative-Dir(G) - 11.3233Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund (Div-A) - 13.2245Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund (Div-Q) - 11.45Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund (G) - 15.5126Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund-Dir (Div-A) - 13.5979Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund-Dir (Div-Q) - 11.7933Motilal Oswal Dynamic Fund-Dir (G) - 16.6209Motilal Oswal Equity Hybrid Fund - Direct (G) - 16.469Motilal Oswal Equity Hybrid Fund - Regular (G) - 15.4642Motilal Oswal Flexi Cap Fund(D) - 23.5266Motilal Oswal Flexi Cap Fund(G) - 33.5828Motilal Oswal Flexi Cap Fund-Dir(D) - 23.7919Motilal Oswal Flexi Cap Fund-Dir(G) - 36.3054Motilal Oswal Focused 25 Fund - Direct (D) - 20.7538Motilal Oswal Focused 25 Fund - Direct (G) - 38.0256Motilal Oswal Focused 25 Fund (D) - 18.4091Motilal Oswal Focused 25 Fund (G) - 33.641Motilal Oswal Large and Midcap Fund - Dir (D) - 16.1563Motilal Oswal Large and Midcap Fund - Dir (G) - 17.3597Motilal Oswal Large and Midcap Fund (D) - 15.4301Motilal Oswal Large and Midcap Fund (G) - 16.5579Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (Div-D) RI - 10.0077Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (Div-F) RI - 10.0127Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (Div-M) - 10.0577Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (Div-Q) - 10.0736Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (Div-W) RI - 10.0142Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Direct (G) - 11.57Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (Div-D) RI - 10.0055Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (Div-F) RI - 10.0123Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (Div-M) - 10.0568Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (Div-Q) - 10.0717Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (Div-W) RI - 10.0211Motilal Oswal Liquid Fund - Regular (G) - 11.5065Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund (D) - 19.6813Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund (G) - 26.8996Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund -Dir (D) - 23.751Motilal Oswal Long Term Equity Fund -Dir (G) - 29.7539Motilal Oswal Midcap 30 Fund (D) - 28.059Motilal Oswal Midcap 30 Fund (G) - 49.2231Motilal Oswal Midcap 30 Fund-Dir (D) - 29.3714Motilal Oswal Midcap 30 Fund-Dir (G) - 54.6391Motilal Oswal MSCI EAFE Top 100 Select Index Fund (G) - 9.5965Motilal Oswal Multi Asset Fund - Direct (G) - 11.1666Motilal Oswal Multi Asset Fund (G) - 10.8481Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 FOF - Direct (G) - 22.3132Motilal Oswal Nasdaq 100 FOF - Regular (G) - 21.9833Motilal Oswal Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund - Direct (G) - 9.4839Motilal Oswal Nifty 50 Index Fund - Direct (G) - 15.0908Motilal Oswal Nifty 50 Index Fund (G) - 14.9256Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 Fund - Direct (G) - 17.5448Motilal Oswal Nifty 500 Fund (G) - 17.2105Motilal Oswal Nifty Bank Index Fund - Direct (G) - 14.4396Motilal Oswal Nifty Bank Index Fund (G) - 14.1542Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 Index Fund (G) - 20.7457Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 Index Fund-Dir (G) - 21.1892Motilal Oswal Nifty Next 50 Index Fund - Dir (G) - 15.3941Motilal Oswal Nifty Next 50 Index Fund (G) - 15.1247Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 Index Fund (G) - 19.9196Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 Index Fund-Dir(G) - 20.3247Motilal Oswal S&P 500 Index Fund - Direct (G) - 15.4622Motilal Oswal S&P 500 Index Fund (G) - 15.2384Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Financials ex Bank 30 Index Fund (G) - 10.553Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Financials ex Bank 30 Index Fund-Dir (G) - 10.5572Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Low Volatility Index Fund (G) - 10.9343Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (Div-D) - 10.2966Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (Div-F) - 10.3218Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (Div-M) - 10.3037Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (Div-Q) - 10.4532Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (Div-W) - 10.3088Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund - Dir (G) - 14.5899Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (Div-D) - 10.1898Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (Div-F) - 10.2023Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (Div-M) - 10.1916Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (Div-Q) - 10.3385Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (Div-W) - 10.1948Motilal Oswal Ultra Short Term Fund (G) - 14.0344

Thinking Laterally

Blog Blog Details
  • January 15, 2018
  • Atul Mehra|
  • Associate Fund Manager, PMS

Why Air Conditioners (ACs) as a category can absolutely take-off in terms of demand in India

**The units of ACs sold in India are ~4m units. If we compare this to categories like Passenger Vehicles sales in India, it is ~1x! It’s strange that a consumer category with a ticket size of mere INR30k sells equal number of units as another category which sells an INR6 lakh ticket product! Further, the aspiration levels / consumer strata for both products are quite similar.

**A comparison with personal mobility is even more compelling! If we look at the below table, ACs sold as a proportion of personal mobility (cars or two wheelers) in China is 1.7x (65m ACs sold vs 38m Cars + 2W). In comparison, ACs sold as a proportion of cars or two wheelers in India is 0.2x (4m ACs sold vs 19m Cars + 2W). Thus, the penetration of ACs as a proportion of personal mobility is 9.2x in China vs India!

Units (m)

Cars

2W

Cars + 2W

China

20

18

38

India

3

16

19

Multiple (x)

             7.1

             1.1

                   2.0

Units (m)

AC/Car

AC/2W

AC/2W or Car

China

3.3

3.6

1.7

India

1.3

0.2

0.2

Multiple (x)

             2.6

          16.6

                   9.2

**Easy availability of consumer financing / penetration of e-commerce (Consumer Credit, Credit Cards, Bank EMI on online purchases) are enablers which will accelerate the growth and penetration of Air Conditioners in India. Further, with e-commerce, distribution for ACs improves further (In China, ~20% of AC sales for Midea comes from online).

 **Better electricity availability: With the Indian power situation going from a deficit to surplus, (reflected in merchant rates have crashed over the years to INR2-2.5 vs past rates of INR6-7), the peak demand is better addressed which increases the propensity for consumers to purchase high power consuming durables like ACs.

**India tropically being high temperature geography creates a natural demand for air conditioners.

**More power efficient products (Invertor ACs) reduce the running costs by 30-35% even as the upfront cost increases by 20-25%, thus resulting in payback of incremental invertor cost in 1-2 year or so for consumers who have round the year usage.

**Higher incomes and declining interest rates are broad macro enablers which can accelerate demand.

A comparison with China

**The Chinese AC market is ~USD30b in terms of size which is ~19x the Indian market size currently. The size delta (China v India) is highest for Air Conditioners (ACs) as product category vs Refrigerators (RF) / Washing Machines (WM).

USD b

AC

RF

WM

China

28.0

21.3

8.1

India

1.5

2.5

1.3

Multiple (x)

          18.7

             8.5

             6.2

Units (m)

AC

RF

WM

China

65

75

38

India

4

9

6

Multiple (x)

16.3

             8.5

             6.2

China consumer durable penetration chart – Insight on how ACs as a category has surpassed other durable categories in China

**Our thesis is that Indian AC market, being least penetrated (most discretionary), and being multi-use (3-4/household) vs other durable products like Refrigerators or Washing Machines (which at a maximum are single use (1/household) has the longest growth runway ahead of it.

**A parallel to our thesis actually visible in this chart for China (as shown above), where highest growth for ACs is actually playing out. See the intersection of AC penetration (green line) over other categories (blue line / red line).

**In India, AC penetration stands at 4% vs 100% in China and vs 10-20% penetration in other consumer durable categories in India, implying highest growth potential!


Cumulatively, our sense is over the next few years (~10 years), the growth for ACs as a category can be the highest amongst consumer durables, perhaps posting a CAGR of 15-20% over the next decade.

Data as on 1/10/2018
Source MOAMC Research

Disclaimer:

This article is prepared on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. The Sectors mentioned herein is for explaining the concept and shall not be construed as an investment, legal or taxation advice to any party. It should not be used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. This article does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal AMC and its affiliates/associates (hereinafter called Motilal Oswal Group) is not soliciting any action based upon it. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. This article does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this presentation, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this article and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Readers shall be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of this article. Investments in Securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the scheme/strategies will be achieved. The sectors presented here may or may not be part of our portfolio/strategy/schemes.



“Reproduced from original article written for cnbctv18.com; published on June 14, 2019”


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